My 2024 Predictions — What did I get right and what did I get wrong?
Every year, I make some bold predictions about technology. Last year I crushed it with 22/24 (92%) success! Here is what I got right & wrong.
If you want to learn more about the future of technology and how it will impact society and humanity, consider buying my new book, 2030: A Blueprint For Humanity’s Exponential Leap.
1. The Rise of AI Retailer Influence Bots — CORRECT Update Jan 9, 2024: Walmart partners with Micrsoft to provide new generative AI-powered capabilities for shoppers and associates (aka bots)
2. AI-Specific Hardware for Real-Time Local Processing — CORRECT (Update Feb 14, 2024: NVIDIA RTX Chat will run on your personal device). (Update Feb 27, 2024: Qualcomm announces on-device chip for AI). (Update April 15, 2024: Limitless Wearable Pendant)
3. Evolution of the Turing Test — CORRECT Update June 2023: Mustafa Suleyman proposes a new Turing test for AI to ‘make $1m’). Update March 29, 2024: Juan M. Lavista Ferres is the corporate vice president and chief data scientist of the AI for Good Lab at Microsoft . “One of the tests is the IKEA test. We used to have the Turing test. Update July 1, 2024 — AI Passes the Turing Test…Again (ChatGPT)
4. Blockchain for Tracking AI-Generated Content — CORRECT Update: Jan 19 2024 — AI Certification Program for ‘fair trained AI’) (Update: Jan 31, 2024 — Fox News using Blockchain to track AI)
5. Legal Challenges and Lawsuits Amidst AI Regulations — CORRECT Update: OpenAI introduces ‘publisher deal’ — Jan 10/24). (Update: SAG-AFTRA signs landmark AI voice agreement — Jan 10/24). (Update Feb 27, 2024: China officials rule in favour of copyright holder over LLM platform)
6. Global Use of AI in Various Political Landscapes — CORRECT Update: OpenAI directly addresses it’s use for elections in 2024) (Update Jan 12, 2024: UK PM Deepfakes Released.) (Update Feb 12, 2024: Former Pakistan Prime Minister uses Deepfake from Prison) — You can’t even make this sh*t up anymore! (Update Feb 14, 2024: OpenAI shutting down political accounts misusing their AI) (Update Feb 19, 2024: 20 Platforms form AI Election Accords to protect against deceptive uses of AI for political influence) (Update July 2, 2024: ChatGPT is giving wrong advice on where to vote in battleground states)
7. Personalized AI Bots, Scams and Deepfakes — CORRECT Update Feb 5, 2024: Hong Kong firm loses $25M in Deepfake Scam). (Update Feb 12, 2024: FCC Bans AI voices in Robocalls) Update March 22, 2024: 4500% increase in deepfake fraud, Statistica)
8. Virtual Meeting Spaces — FALSE — This did not materialize as predicted.
9. Humanoid Robots for Home Tasks — CORRECT Update Jan 11, 2024: Robot startup 1X gets $100M in funding) (Update Jan 22, 2024: Elon Musk estimates 1 billion humanoid robots by 2040's). (Update Feb 13, 2024: MagicLab announces humanoid robot for folding laundry and more)
10. AI in Elderly and Loneliness Care — CORRECT Update: New AI wearable for seniors introduced at CES, Jan 9/24)
11. Trillion-Dollar Market Cap for Tesla and Bitcoin — CORRECT Update: BTC Hits $1T on February 14, 2024) Update: Tesla hits $1 trillion in market capitalization (again)
12. Early Adoption of AI Wearables — CORRECT Update: New startup introduces Rabbit R1 AI wearable at CES, Jan 10/24) (Update: Tab AI wearable introduced at CES, Jan 10/24)
13. Generative AI powers the Metaverse — FALSE — The AI text-to-3D is not mature enough to be considered relevant for this discussion.
14. Spatial Computing & XR Renaissance in Enterprise Applications — CORRECT (Enterprise XR)
15. Continued Dominance of Video Games — PARTIALLY CORRECT I predicted the global gaming industry to be worth $275B in 2024, it was $221.24 billion in 2024
16. Launch of the First Virtual Retail Mall — FALSE
17. Swarm Intelligence and Hive Mind Create Better Predictions — CORRECT (Unanimous AI, Metaculus)
18. AI-Enhanced Cybersecurity Measures — CORRECT AI is already being used to detect security threats.
19. Integration of AI & Robotics in Agriculture & Distribution — CORRECT From self-driving tractors to AI weeding, 2024 was huge for agriculture and technology.
20. AI-Powered Journalism and Content Creation- CORRECT Update: Duolingo fires employees to use AI for translation, Jan 10/24)
21. Expansion of Synthetic Biology and Personalized Medicine — CORRECT CRISPR and other technologies, including AI are enhancing diagnosis and treatment of disease.
22. Collaborative AI in Scientific Discovery — CORRECT AI drug discovery and over 200 million protein folding structures deciphered in 2024.
23. A New Education System Will Emerge Leveraging Technology At Scale — CORRECT Unlimited Awesome was announced and over 120 global mentors have signed up.
24. 2024 will be your best year, EVER! — CORRECT I sincerely hope you had an incredible 2024 and that 2025 brings you peace, fun, joy, love and success.
About Alan Smithson
Alan Smithson, B.Sc. is a globally renowned futurist, keynote speaker, and
author dedicated to inspiring socially, economically, and environmentally responsible action. A father, founder, and DJ, Alan makes complex topics engaging and actionable, sharing insights in his TEDx talk, The Marriage of Education and Technology. Alan is a co-author of 2030: A Blueprint for Humanity’s Exponential Leap, which will launch in January 2025.
As co-founder of Emulator (touchscreen DJ technology), METAVRSE (3D creation platform), Unlimited Awesome (education for entrepreneurs), and Clean Data Centers (nuclear-powered data centers), Alan leads innovations in AI, blockchain, metaverse, education, and clean energy. He advises HSTAR Space, invests in Lawfully Minded (AI legal resource), and has been a Techstars mentor, SXSW Pitch judge, and One Creativity Awards juror.
Named a Top 50 Digital Futurist, Alan has spoken at CES, SXSW, TEDx, and
AWE, with features in Forbes, HBR, and CNN. As DJ “Lord Alan,” he’s per-
formed globally and won DJ Mag’s Innovative Product award. Learn more at AlanSmithson.com.
