My 2023 Predictions — What did I get right and what did I get wrong?
I published these predictions for 2023 one year ago…let’s see what I got right and wrong! Below I will score myself out of 23 with either a ✓ or X with comments about each in BOLD.
- ✓ Launch of MetaVRse Engine 2.0 (I have the inside scoop on this one) — Launched in August 2023! https://metavrse.com/engine
- X Launch of TheMall (inside scoop) — We missed this. TheMall is launching in Q2 2024 — https://TheMall.io
- X Launch of YourDirectorAI PRO (also inside scoop) — We missed this target. Launching in Q1 2024 — https://ydai.pro
- ✓ Live Human Trials of Brain Computer Interface (BCI) to treat paralyzed patients — This is true, sadly, but happening.
- X Live Human Trials of contact lens augmented reality (AR) — This did not happen, in fact one of the major companies working on it pivoted.
- ✓ Apple will announce AppleGlass developer kit at Apple’s World-wide Developer Conference (WWDC) giving developers time to build software for the device before a public launch ahead of the holidays. — Vision Pro
- ✓ The Federal Trade Commission will lose its lawsuit opposing Microsoft’s $69 billion Activision purchase, but Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and others will continue to struggle to acquire startups due to regulatory restrictions on antitrust. — Correct!
- ✓ Cloud computing and server side rendering will increase in quality while decreasing in price leading to another explosion in cloud investments and acquisitions. — This was a given.
- ✓ Cryptocurrencies will see a resurgence near the end of 2023 due to softening of monetary policies and systematic lowering of interest rates by the US Fed. — BTC is Booming!
- ✓ Startups with outrageous valuations and no revenue will find themselves in down-rounds where investors take over and founders get left behind and investors try to mitigate their losses (ie. Clubhouse, Be Real, etc.) — SVB blew up and took the VC industry down with it. Combined with higher interest rates, this is 100% right!
- ✓ Meta releases Oculus Quest 3 (with higher resolution, eye tracking and colour passthrough). Meta will also release an AR Glasses prototype for developers and perhaps another mid-tier VR headset. — Nailed it!
- X More companies will install a ‘Chief Metaverse Officer’ and/or create a comprehensive Metaverse Strategy. — Wrong on this one, the exact opposite happened with AI taking the spotlight in 2023.
- ✓ Enterprise companies focus on value creation using Metaverse tools (ie. 3D/XR, AI and Blockchain). Companies will not continue to invest in ‘Digital Land’ unless it comes with eyeballs. Attention is the new economy. — I would say this was partially true, real value is being created with these technologies, but digital land took a big hit in 2023. Expect a rebound in 2024.
- ✓ NFTs will find their value but will continue to create worthless ‘assets’ that unsuspecting people will waste their money on. — NFTs lost 90% of their value and now are gaining momentum.
- ✓ Hedera / HBAR will go from 38th position to 20th as companies realize the potential of a dedicated ‘enterprise blockchain’. I predict $0.50 by the end of 2023 (wishful thinking? I do hold a bunch so I hope not) — Not quite as rosy as I predicted, but HBAR did move from 38th to 29th and triple their market cap.
- ✓ Massive advancements in Generative AI (Text, Audio, Music, Video, 3D) — This is an understatement!!
- ✓ GPT4 will blow our minds — It sure did!!!
- ✓ Google will introduce a new AI to compete with ChatGPT — Nailed it! Even if Google’s LLM PaLM 2 is meh at best.
- ✓ NOTE: This happened in the first week of 2024, so I am taking it! Qualcomm announces next generation XR3 Chipset — This didn’t happen, but I expect it will in the first half of 2024.
- ✓ Microsoft will deprecate AltSpace or sell it off while expanding the Mesh program for serving Enterprise Metaverse needs. X They will also introduce Hololens 3 in 2023. ✓ The DoD will expand the IVAR test and start to use HL2 for deployed soldiers for real-world testing. — I would say pretty close on this one.
- ✓ Magic Leap will continue to struggle to find ground despite their excellent technical progress with their Magic Leap 2. — They even lost their new CEO in 2023.
- ✓ The Middle East will lead the Enterprise Metaverse with Dubai (UAE) and Riyadh (Saudi) leading the way. Companies will use government grants and investment to build real value using XR, AI and Blockchain. — True.
- X A completely novel light projection system for miniature AR glasses will appear in 2023 from Israel or Europe. (Photonics are hard) — I didn’t see this happen in 2023.
SCORE: 18 out of 23
Not bad for an amateur futurist ;)
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About me:
My life’s purpose is to inspire and educate people to think and act in a socially, economically and environmentally responsible way. (Unlimited Awesome Academy)
I help make creator tools and experiences: Emulator , METAVRSE, Your Director AI, Meetopia and TheMall. I have a blog that looks at the possible negative outcomes of AI technology (AIvsHumans.ai).
I was a DJ for more than 20 years performing for millions of people winning DJ Mag’s Innovative Product of the Year in 2011. I was Named one of the 50 most prominent Digital Futurists to watch out for in 2022 and a Top Retail Influencer, 2023 and 2024. I am a TEDx Speaker, Podcast Host and was featured on Dragons’ Den.
If you think my bio is impressive…my daughter Abi, invented sandals that leave a heart-shaped tan line on your feet called Love Sandal. Abi has been featured in Inc. and won Top 20 Under 20 at only 10 years old.
Not to be outdone, my wife and co-founder, in addition to running operations at METAVRSE, also runs XR Women, the world’s largest XR industry meetup for Women.
